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27 Mar 2025
NZD/USD rises to near 0.5750 as China’s Ding pledges support for private sector growth
- NZD/USD strengthens as China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang announces plans for more proactive macroeconomic policies this year.
- President Trump’s 25% auto tariff sparks fears of a broader trade war, potentially impacting US economic growth.
- The US Dollar struggles as Treasury yields decline, with the 2-year and 10-year yields at 4.01% and 4.37%, respectively.
NZD/USD is trading around 0.5740 during European hours on Thursday, recovering from losses in the previous session. The pair is gaining as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens, possibly driven by the comments from China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, who stated that China will implement more proactive macroeconomic policies this year. Given the close trade ties between China and New Zealand, any economic shifts in China can significantly impact New Zealand’s markets.
China’s Vice Premier Ding also emphasized China's commitment to fostering private sector growth, addressing concerns of foreign businesses, and encouraging foreign investment. These statements have provided a boost to risk sentiment, benefiting the NZD.
Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) is retreating after US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, set to take effect on April 2. This move, alongside other planned reciprocal tariffs, has raised concerns over a broader trade war that could weigh on economic growth.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is pulling back from recent gains and is trading around 104.40. The Greenback faces additional pressure as US Treasury yields decline, with the 2-year and 10-year yields at 4.01% and 4.37%, respectively.
Market participants are now awaiting key US economic data scheduled for release later today, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the final Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized report. Additionally, Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure—will offer further insights into the central bank’s policy outlook.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.