Further USD downside through the first half of the year – TDS

Economists at TD Securities expect the US Dollar to struggle through the first half of 2024.

Value could steal some of carry's performance

Terms of trade and carry proved dominant FX themes again over the past year. With rate cuts on the way this year, value could steal some of carry's performance. Still, that could take some time to play out through the course of the year. 

We also note the divergence between G10 growth/inflation factors, where G10 housing could shape performance this year. 

Broad USD forecasts call for further weakness through H1.